UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF AVERAGE FLOW DURATION CURVES USED IN HYDRPOWER PLANTS FEASABILITY STUDIES

• Abstract:

  This study applies a Monte Carlo method (MCM) to estimate the uncertainty related to the determination of the annual flow duration curve determined at a river weir, considering the dynamic behaviour of processes and the intrinsic uncertainty contributions to the raw data. The computation of the curve uses a time series of average daily flow data collected at a hydrometric station at an upstream river section. This curve was used for a hydropower plant feasibility study. Results show how model uncertainty can be estimated from the measurement uncertainty of raw data and mathematical formulation applied.
• Keywords:

  Uncertainty; time series; mathematical models; Monte Carlo method; data
• Download:

  IMEKO-TC11-2022-18.pdf
• DOI:

  tc11-2022.18

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