Failure rates sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

• Abstract:

  This paper is focused on sensitivity analysis achieved on system reliability: sensitivity assessment allows putting in discussion nominal values taken from a generic database and focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty from input to output. There are many sources of uncertainty that can affect input data and this uncertainty imposes a limit on our confidence in the response of the model. In this paper sensitivity analysis is achieved on GE Oil&Gas mineral lube oil console, a system forced to endure extreme process and environmental conditions. In order to have a wide sample survey Monte Carlo simulation is used supposing two different probability distributions (uniform and normal) for failure rates coming from OREDA Offshore Reliability Data Handbook.
• Keywords:

  sensitivity analysis, reliability assessment, Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), oil & gas applications, gas turbine auxiliary systems, Monte Carlo simulation, uniform distribution, normal distribution
• Download:

  IMEKO-TC10-2014-034.pdf
• DOI:

  _unreg_tc10-2014.034

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